The Watchdog has taken a close look at Thursday night’s Group 3 Bill Collins Speed Star (515m) at Sandown Park and provided extensive analysis on the four head-to-head match races.
Check it out below…
MATCH RACE 1, 6:09pm
The Watchdog says : Great matchup and although short at $1.40, RAPAKI ROCKS (3) looks the goods. McINERNEY (1) is racing with confidence at present, and I expect him to lead at the bend, however he will push off through the bend and with RAPAKI ROCKS likely to be a length-and-a-half behind, he should avoid clipping heels and save plenty of ground through the turn. RAPAKI ROCKS was enormous winning his heat and the final of the Group 1 Harrison-Dawson and with his railing style and the ability to carve out 29.10sec or faster, he should simply prove too strong in the run home.
Prediction: Rapaki Rocks by two lengths in 29.10 seconds
Click HERE for TAB’s latest Bill Collins Speed Star Match Race 1 market
MATCH RACE 2, 6:19pm
The Watchdog says : Very even match-up and early speed is expected to play a huge part. DUSTY BOURBSKI (1) clearly has the strength edge; however, he does like to push wide and with the speed map suggesting SECURITY MAN (3) will be a length in front at the first bend, DUSTY BOURBSKI is likely to clip heels and he may lose a length to a length-and-a-half as they head to the back straight. He is still capable of picking himself up and running over the top late, however his rival will be carving out blistering sectionals in front and I think SECURITY MAN can trim a length or so off his 29.22sec win here two runs back. If that occurs, that should be enough to hold off DUSTY BOURBSKI and he looks a great bet at $3.20.
Prediction: Security Man by one length in 29.15 seconds
Click HERE for TAB’s latest Bill Collins Speed Star Match Race 2 market
MATCH RACE 3, 6:31pm
The Watchdog says : LEVITATION (3) has a tremendous record here and she was enormous when scoring here two runs back in 29.06sec, so she is going to take a power of beating, however she did carve out 5.07sec to the first marker and that is a length faster than what she would normally go. ASTON TANGO (1) has gone to another level in her past two here with scorching 29.12sec and 29.13sec wins and on both occasions, she sizzled through the first marker in 5.05sec. If she can repeat that performance, she should hold the top as they head through the first turn, and I don’t think LEVITATION can run sub 29.10sec from off the pace. So, at the $2.25, ASTON TANGO looks to be a solid investment.
Prediction: ASTON TANGO by one length in 29.10 seconds
Click HERE for TAB’s latest Bill Collins Speed Star Match Race 3 market
MATCH RACE 4, 6:42pm
The Watchdog says : This is easily the best and most exciting match-up we have seen since the inception of the Speed Star, and I’m surprised by the betting. WOW SHE’S FAST (3) was incredible in the Group 1 Sapphire Crown Final and she continues to capture the imagination of race fans, however BIG OPAL ROCKS (1) is one of the most gifted chasers we have ever seen, and he will be suited by this race format. The favourite has proven to be a big race performer having run 5.04sec and 5.03sec to the first marker in her two feature wins around this circuit and a repeat of that will see her cross to the lead and I can’t see her being run down if she repeats her 28.82sec performance from last Thursday night, however if she runs 5.10sec or slower to the first marker, then she is a big risk. BIG OPAL ROCKS is seen as a slow beginner, however he does have great acceleration and he is capable of going 5.10sec to the first marker, so if the favourite happens to miss the kick, he might be able to punch through and lead or at worst, head to the back straight within a length. With the ability to go sub 28.90sec, he appears to be a value bet at $3.80.
Prediction: Big Opal Rocks by one length in 28.90 seconds
Click HERE for TAB’s latest Bill Collins Speed Star Match Race 4 market