Draw won’t boost Immunity: The Watchdog

Expert form analyst The Watchdog says Immunity deserves favouritism for Saturday night’s Trio’s Winter Cup Final at Cranbourne but believes the $2.20 being offered by TAB is “under the odds”.

Immunity, trained by champion local mentor Jason Thompson and a half-sister to his former superstar Black Opium, is the fastest qualifier for the Winter Cup after a 30.05sec heat victory at her Cranbourne debut.

But that came from Immunity’s preferred draw in eight, from where she has a perfect four from four record, and The Watchdog feels the move to box four may bring her undone.

“My slight concern is the amount of speed drawn in one, two and three. She may have a little bit of trouble crossing in the early stages,” said The Watchdog.

Last week Immunity got the better of Nikoli Bale, one of three finalists trained by Samantha Grenfell, and The Watchdog believes the emerging talent can turn tables at $5.

greyhoundracingvic · How to spend $20 on Cranbourne’s Winter Cup Final

“I thought he was super last week, led them up, and prior to that he was brilliant at Geelong, (winning in) 25.59sec. I think he’s elevated his game to the next level. He’s one to follow going forward and from box one he’s going to get every chance on Saturday night.”

The Watchdog has identified $5.50 chance Mepunga Reject, which is drawn alongside Nikoli Bale in box two, as the main danger.

“I was a bit disappointed with his run on Saturday night but I’ve gone back and had a look at the replay and I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think he got a little bit lost through that (first) turn (WATCH) and I think he’ll be better for the run.

“He’s a very fast greyhound on his night, he can run the hands off the clock. He should follow the red through in the early stages, so he’s definitely one to be respected.”

Away from the fancied runners, The Watchdog says Plan Ahead can bob up at a juicy $19 quote and add great value to exotics.

“I think the value runner has to be number five, Plan Ahead. He’s going to get back early but he can really charge to the line. He’ll take advantage of some rails runs and if there’s any bunching up front he could be there to take advantage.”

The Watchdog’s $20 Winter Cup spend:

$8 Win – NIKOLI BALE @ $5
$4 Win – MEPUNGA REJECT @ $5.50
$8 Trifecta – 1, 2 / 1, 2, 4, 5 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8 (22.22%)

$29,285 CRANBOURNE WINTER CUP FINAL
Saturday 12 July
$20,535 (1^st); $5,830 (2^nd); $2,920 (3^rd)
1 NIKOLI BALE (Samantha Grenfell, Anakie)
2 MEPUNGA REJECT (Jeffrey Britton, Anakie)
3 XAVIEN BALE (Samantha Grenfell, Anakie)
4 IMMUNITY (Jason Thompson, Pearcedale)
5 PLAN AHEAD (Angela Langton, Anakie)
6 HILL TOP JACK (David Geall, Lara)
7 PERSIAN GODDESS (Ben Joske, Yinnar South)
8 USMAN BALE (Samantha Grenfell, Anakie)
Reserves
9 KURO KISMET (Matthew Clark, Briagolong)
10 RIPPLEBROOK GLEN (Ronald Wood, Warragul)