2022 Caulfield Guineas preview & betting strategy | October 8

What Caulfield Guineas 2022
Where Caulfield Racecourse – 22 Station St, Caulfield East VIC 3145
When Saturday, October 8, 2022 | Race 8 | 4:30pm AEDT
Prizemoney $3,000,000
Distance 1600m
Status Group 1
Conditions Set Weights | 3YO
2021 Winner Anamoe (15) | T: James Cummings | J: Damien Oliver (57kg)

The 2022 Caulfield Guineas has long been a stallion-making event and it headlines the action at Caulfield on Saturday afternoon.

Having been taken out by Anamoe last year, Godolphin will be looking to pick up consecutive wins in the event, with Golden Mile heading the market at $3.60 with online bookmakers. Dan O’Sullivan will be looking to pick up his first Group 1 success with Berkeley Square ($5), while the Ben & JD Hayes-trained Tijuana ($9.50) is the only other runner at a single-figure quote.

Expect Elkington Road to use barrier two to his advantage and take up the running, while the likes of Foujita San, Bank Maur and Osipenko will need to be aggressive early in finding a spot close to the speed from the wide barriers. Golden Mile should settle just off the speed, and we expect Berkeley Square to follow his main market rival wherever he goes.

There is plenty of rain forecast for Caulfield in the lead up to Saturday, so keep that in mind when staking in Saturday’s Group 1.

Keep reading for HorseBetting’s full runner-by-runner preview and $100 betting strategy.

silk1. TIJUANA (10)

3yoC | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Mark Zahra (57kg)

The Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Tijuana could not have been any more impressive this campaign and get his chance at Group 1 glory on Saturday. He resumed with an eye-catching third behind subsequent Golden Rose Stakes winner Jacquinot, and then went to Flemington and stuck on bravely to be beaten a long neck to Berkeley Square before impressing when winning the Group 2 Stutt Stakes. He has drawn awkwardly out in barrier 10, but considering he has shown to be tactically versatile; he should be prominent in the finish whether he settles up or speed and drops out the back early. The American Pharoah colt is armed with a strong turn of foot and with a genuinely run mile assured, Tijuana will be one of those making their run down the centre of the track late on.


3yoG | T: Dan O’Sullivan | J: Craig Williams (57kg)

The Dan O’Sullivan-trained Berkeley Square has only tasted defeat to Thousand Guineas fancy Boogie Dancer in his career and based on his last two wins at Flemington, he looks a clear op tip in the Caulfield Guineas. The Territories gelding looked to have been a good thing beaten in the Exford Plate when strung up in traffic until the final furlong. Once he found clear air, the gelding exploded to the line under Craig Williams and looked like he had plenty in reserve when winning over 1400m. From barrier seven, we expect Willow to have this bloke settled midfield in the moving line and as long as he gets clear running at the top of the straight, Berkeley Square has an electric turn of foot, and he should prove too hard to hold out. The $5.50 on offer with some online betting sites looks a treat for this progressive three-year-old who has the world at his hoofs.

silk3. GOLDEN MILE (5)

3yoC | T: James Cummings | J: James McDonald (57kg)

Godolphin will be looking to claim a second straight win in the Caulfield Guineas, with Golden Mile looking to follow in the footsteps of Anamoe. The three-year-old colt comes out of the Golden Rose where he finished 1.5 lengths off Jacquinot when settling closer to the speed than expected. His win two starts prior in the Ming Dynasty Quality was breathtaking when hitting the lead inside the final furlong and putting three-lengths on the likes of Matcha Latte and Basquiat. He draws perfectly in barrier five under James McDonald and with a cosy run in transit, should be featuring in the finish. His turn of foot is strong and despite being outclassed by In Secret and Jacquinot last time out, he is a deserving favourite in the Caulfield Guineas and has a fair bit of class on a majority of his rivals.

silk4. MILLANE (11)

3yoC | T: Peter Moody | J: Luke Nolen (57kg)

The Peter Moody-trained Millane has been a touch disappointing so far this campaign and finished four-lengths off Jacquinot in the Golden Rose. He was held up for a run at a crucial point on that occasion and was only clear when the race was decided. Pror to that he had struggled behind the likes of Meridius and sprinters Giga Kick and Alpha One. Millane needs to go to a whole new level to be competitive in this.

silk5. BANK MAUR (17)

3yoC | T: Richard Laming | J: Jye McNeil (57kg)

The way the Richard Laming-trained Bank Maur won at Sandown on September 25 suggested he was a runner to follow heading to the Guineas. The Maurice colt made great use of a low barrier when stalking the speed throughout, before hitting the front with 300m to go and went through the gear nicely to win in soft fashion. He Elliptical who he meets once again on Saturday with relative ease and despite drawing out wide in barrier 17, we’re happy to give this bloke a big push at the price. Jye McNeil will look to have him settled in the first six with cover and if the pair are lucky enough to do so, this bloke brings a bit of x-factor to a race like the Caulfield Guineas. The $23 being bet with Ladbrokes is massive overs in our eyes and as long as he does not get caught wide without cover, we expect Bank Maur to give this race a shake at any old price.

silk6. FOUJITA SAN (18)

3yoC | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: Damien Thornton (57kg)

The Hawkes stable sure know how to produce youngsters at the right time heading into the classics and Foujita San will be looking to hand the stable a second win in the race in three years, following in the footsteps of Ole Kirk. This bloke appreciated the step up to the mile when chasing home Tijuana at Moonee Valley on September 23, with his run in defeat arguably more impressive than what it reads. He was one of a handful to make up any ground from off the speed on that night and will only appreciate getting to a track like Caulfield. However, that last start was a career peak and from the carpark draw, will need plenty of luck in getting across the field and not getting caught three or four wide the duration. He’s a handy conveyance on his day, but we think the barrier gets him beat in this one.

silk7. MERIDIUS (16)

3yoC | T: Lloyd Kennewell | J: Damian Lane (57kg)

Lloyd Kennewell and Damian Lane will pair up with Meridius in Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas and based on his first two starts this campaign, he is set to peak third-up from a spell. He was the best of the beaten bunch in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude when beaten 3.5 lengths in pouring rain to Aft Cabin. He made up a stack of ground in conditions that were never going to suit backmarkers, but considering he put two-lengths on a horse like Amenable who he meets again on the weekend, has him as a genuine first four hope. His want to settle towards the rear of the field offsets the tricky draw of barrier 16 and with plenty of speed expected in the 1600m event, the race looks nicely setup for Meridius to build through his gears and thunder down the heart of the track. The concern is whether he gives runners like Golden Mile and Berkely Square too much of a start, but at the price is certainly an each-way hope.

silk8. SKYPHIOS (3)

3yoG | T: Rob Blacker | J: Harry Coffey (57kg)

The Rob Blacker-trained Skyphios will use the Caulfield Guineas as a genuine pipe opener ahead of an assured start in the Victoria Derby on October 29. Look for him to be hitting the line strongly, but we don’t think he has the sharpness about him to trouble most of these.

silk9. OSIPENKO (15)

3yoC | T: Chris Waller | J: Tim Clark (57kg)

The Chris Waller-trained Osipenko is one of many we can be forgiving towards coming out of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude, having simply not handled the horrid conditions. However, from the wide barrier on Saturday he will need to roll forward under Tim Clark and will risk getting trapped three wide the trip. The first-up run on a Heavy 8 will have him primed for this fitness-wise, but whether he is as sharp as some of these remains to be seen. He’s from the right stable and has one of the best jockeys on board for front-runners, but we are happy to risk Osipenko.

silk10. AMENABLE (14)

3yoC | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Damien Oliver (57kg)

Despite being beaten 5.5-lengths in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude, the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Amenable was making good ground late from the rear of the field, but whether he is up to Group 1 level like he faces on Saturday remains to be seen. He was unlucky first-up at The Valley when racing in tight room over 1200m and despite looking like he will appreciate stepping out to the mile, he is hard to side with on a trust basis.

silk11. ELKINGTON ROAD (2)

3yoG | T: Mike Moroney | J: Jamie Mott (57kg)

Elkington Road from the Mike Moroney yard looks to be the natural leader in Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas but will need to go to a whole new level in Saturday’s Group 1. He has won both of his starts on Heavy going in weaker company than what he faces on Saturday and despite having a tactical advantage on some of his rivals, we expect he will be outclassed when it matters most.

silk12. SIR BAILEY (3)

3yoC | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Ethan Brown (57kg)

Despite continually looking like he will produce the goods, the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace-trained Sir Bailey has found winning to be tough in recent times. He is a genuine backmarker who looks like he will appreciate the step out to 1600m for the first time in his career, but on recent form the $34 available with Neds looks to be a touch of unders.

silk13. ELLIPTICAL (1)

3yoC | T: Anthony & Sam Freedman | J: Blake Shinn (57kg)

Anthony & Sam Freedman will be needing plenty of luck for their three-year-old colt Elliptical on Saturday having drawn the pole. He is a runner who needs to build through his gears in clear air and considering he will be most likely trapped three back the fence throughout, he will require a bit of Blake Shinn magic if he is to feature in the finish. Expect the $16 on offer with Palmerbet to blow out closer to the jump.

silk14. LETHAL THOUGHTS (12)

3yoC | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Michael Dee (57kg)

Lethal Thoughts has not won since debut and has struggled emphatically in the Up And Coming Stakes first-up and then again in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. He is hard to have based on recent efforts.


3yoC | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: Jamie Kah (57kg)

The Fortune Teller chased home Bank Maur at Sandown last time out but wasn’t really cutting into the margin when the eventual winner was pulled up. He did manage to beat home Elliptical on that day and you are getting double the price for this runner. Jamie Kah sticks on board – which is an obvious bonus – but the Caravaggio will be struggling against some of his rivals in Group 1 company.

silk16. DASHING (5)

3yoG | T: Aaron Purcell | J: Linda Meech (57kg)

Despised outsider Dashing from the Aaron Purcell yard was beaten three-lengths at Flemington in BM64 grade behind Elkington Road and will need to produce a minor miracle to be taking out the Guineas. In saying that, he was beaten under a length by Elliptical at Sandown back in June, but his most recent start has us thinking he will struggle to beat a runner home.

2022 Caulfield Guineas emergencies

silk17. ANGRY SKIES (9)

3yoC | T: Ben & JD Hayes | J: TBA (57kg)

The Ben & JD Hayes-trained Angry Skies needs a scratching to get in to the Caulfield Guineas and is another who comes out of the Bank Maur race at Sandown. He was arguably going as well as The Fortune Teller and Elliptical when finishing a narrow fourth. The run suggested he will appreciate every bit of the 1600m on Saturday if he gains the run and absolutely relished the Heavy 8 on debut at Swan Hill. Expect a midfield finish if Angy Skies gains a start, but he may be one to follow in the autumn.

silk18. MURAMASA (6)

3yoC | T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | J: Daniel Moor (57kg)

Muramasa looks to be another one heading towards a Victoria Derby and it shows by being dual accepted in the Hill Smith Stakes (1800m) at Morphettville. He was only getting going late in the Stutt Stakes and we expect to see something similar if he gains a start on Saturday.

2022 Caulfield Guineas Selections & Best Bet

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Caulfield Guineas $100 betting strategy
$100 win Berkeley Square @ $5 with Bet365

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