By Michael Guerin
On paper the small but select main pace at Alexandra Park tonight looks one of the great ratings certainties ever.
But things often aren’t that simple where Sooner The Bettor is involved.
The five-year-old finds himself as a Miracle Mile runner-up, to Leap To Fame of all horses, and starting from the ace in a mid-grade mobile 1700m, the Breckon Farms Mobile Pace (5.50pm) tonight .
Add to that he has gate speed, the two next most favoured pacers in the race are his stablemates Better Knuckle Up and Jeremiah and the likelihood the five runners should quickly fall into single file, and this looks the perfect comeback race for Sooner The Bettor.
And so it may prove to be. After all he was heavily backed after opening a surprising $4.20 second favourite and for all the reasons listed above he should win.
But while the best version of Sooner The Bettor has beaten superstars and pushed stablemate Merlin close on plenty of occasions, the less ambitious version of Sooner The Bettor has also been beaten in fields not much better than tonight.
He has won just seven races from 44 starts, albeit many in elite company but has also run 15 seconds, as mentioned many to vastly superior horses to those he meets tonight.
But the man who knows him and his key rivals best thinks we will see the winning version tonight.
“It looks the perfect race for him to come back in,” says co-trainer Scott Phelan.
“With his gate speed he should lead and you wouldn’t think it would be a race with a lot of pressure.
“We have put Harrison [Orange] on him as that would make it a penalty free win if he gets the job done so there are a lot of positives.”
So while Jeremiah, Better Knuckle Up and even The Surfer, who was good returning last start, will be fitter than Sooner The Bettor, after his recent workout run behind Merlin he really should be winning tonight.
Phelan says plenty of other members of the team he trains with Barry Purdon faces tough tasks tonight.
“Confederate has ended up in a tough race considering his rating but we would rather race here for $17,000 than take an easier option for $8000, I don’t see the sense in that.
“We have some nice two-year-olds in both the boys and fillies races but they have all got terrible draws so they are really up against it.
“But I thought a horse who could go close was Miki Doo in the last race. He has a better draw that our other horse The Night Agent and is back in maiden grade after being beaten by race winners in 2:41 fresh up last Friday.”
Tonight’s meeting also sees some good trot races with Pretty In Pink (R1) and Bolt For The Hill (R7) both winning well enough last start to suggest they could do so again, with the latter opening a very tempting $7 with the bookies.