Trainer Cliff Brown is banking on a trip to Caulfield to determine the direction he takes with Rogan (NZ) (Super Seth) in coming months.
Rogan runs in the Evergreen Turf Handicap (2000m) on Saturday with hopes a forward performance may lead to a trip north to Brisbane for the gelding for some bigger races.
The three-year-old, by Super Seth, is a half-brother to Von Hauke (NZ) (Savabeel) who has proven himself adept at trips between 1100m to 1600m, whereas Rogan is showing promise over more ground.
An older half-brother, Savvy Crown (NZ) (Savabeel), held winning form between 1450m and 2100m.
Rogan was placed over 1200m at Mornington in October last year but was not seen at his best until stepped up to 1600m when successful in a Kilmore maiden on April 5.
At his latest outing at Cranbourne on April 18, Rogan closed off well over 2025m when fourth to Hurricane Georgie who two starts earlier had chased home Benagil and Athanatos, both last start Stakes winners in Adelaide, in the VOBIS Guineas at Caulfield.
Brown concedes Saturday’s draw at Caulfield is not ideal, but it will give the Mornington-based horseman an idea as to where Rogan may head.
Saturday’s race is the same race Brown used with Yaphet in 2022 before that gelding went on to run second in the Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m) at Morphettville the following week.
Brown expects Rogan to step out further in trip as he continues to mature.
“He’s a genuine staying horse,” Brown said.
“He’d have to improve to warrant a trip to Brisbane, but if he happened to win, for sure, he’d be straight up there, but we’d need to see him do it.”
While the Brisbane Carnival is enticing, Saturday’s race forms part of the Mahogany Challenge, a series over races over 2000m and above for three-year-olds.