By Jonny Turner
Carter Dalgety thinks it’s a good thing Friday’s Ascot Park Invercargill Cup isn’t run on paper.
Dalgety will attempt to win the fourth running of Southland’s biggest race at Group 1 level, with two of those titles already to his name.
After Krug’s victory in 2022, Dalgety and parents Cran and Chrissie produced Republican Party to win the event last year and it proved to be the starting point for the six-year-old establishing himself as New Zealand’s best open class pacer.
A year on and little has changed, with Republican Party installed as a hot favourite for Friday’s race.
The difference this year is the 2024 champion will start another 10m back on the 20m back mark.
Dalgety has had plenty of time to assess that mark and his possible tactics from it.
And nothing has been setting off alarm bells.
“On paper it does look like a tough mark and it is not going to be easy.”
“But there are a few things in our favour.”
“Making a good beginning will be the key to it all, we will want to make it up as quickly as possible.”
“He has been getting away great lately, so fingers crossed he can do it again.”
“I think so long as we aren’t too far off them then I will have a few options.”
“He’s the horse to beat and everyone will be out to make it hard for him, it is a Group 1 race and he will have to earn it.”
“But I think he can.”
Republican Party tuned up for his Invercargill Cup defence with a brilliant victory at Addington last week.
The Dalgety camp hopes it has the pacer just where he needs to be on Friday.
“He was reasonably forward going into that race, but he did have a good blow afterwards.”
“It is a good thing it panned out the way it did, because that should have him pretty spot on for this week.”
“He’s been in a great space right the way through and as far as how he is looking and how he is feeling, we couldn’t be happier with him.”
Team Dalgety start three horses on the Invercargill Cup undercard in Treacherous Dreams, Eun Sogno and The Queens Gambit.
“They all look nice chances in pretty competitive races.”
“Of our team The Queens Gambit has come on really nicely since her last run.”
“She ran second to Eun Sogno who is a colt, which is pretty respectable form.”
“He would be a good chance himself, he’s in a nice field but that is nothing new for him.”
“And Treacherous Dream has the perfect draw for Invercargill with his gate speed, he’s pretty genuine too.”
The Dalgety camp also start Franco Sinatra in the Invercargill Cup, with the pacer expected to be among the outsiders of the field.
Racing journalist Jonny Turner is here to help with his five horses to follow.
Race 12 (8.52pm)- J T Boe
He’s big, he’s raw and he’s got a motor. It sounds good but he is probably not your typical Ascot Park horse.
However the key to this promising three-year-old’s chances is that his two main rivals have drawn tricky spots.
Always Dreaming is snookered away in barrier 1 on the second row, while Seaside Rose is drawn towards the outside of the second row. J T Boe has shown he can rough it and I expect Tim Williams to keep him in clear air and let him show off his staying prowess.
Race 9 (7.10pm) – Mr Love
A 15m head-start will do me. Stepping back up to the 2700m staying trip after a second placing in a Group One Dominion looks just perfect for Mr Love. He has to beat his stablemate Muscle Mountain who is a deserved favourite, but with a 15m handicap advantage I think he can do just that. The key to the race looks to be Mr Love maintaining his head-start on his stablemate and main rival. With the horses in front of them in the handicaps, it looks unlikely anything would hold out Mr Love if he were to press towards the lead. That’s the scenario in which he can come out on top.
Race 5 (4.52pm) – Treacherous Dreams
Sometimes at Ascot Park you don’t have to go with the best horse in the race. Without wanting to disrespect anyone involved, I think Transonic is the best horse in Friday’s fifth event. But the race looks to set up perfectly for Treacherous Dreams. He’s got gate speed, a great draw and a positive driver, plus he is in form. And to be clear, he is no slouch. He brings very respectable Addington form south. Transonic may prove to be too good, and it may depend on how far off the speed he is from barrier 4 on the second row. But given he opened at $1.65, Treacherous Dreams looks the more attractive play.
Race 3 (3.52pm) – Becky’s Girl
She’s probably just better than her rivals. Becky’s Girl brings form through a stronger series of Addington races than her rivals do. She’s mixed it with top class colts and geldings, as well as fillies, and gone some very good races in the process. Becky’s Girl has drawn a little wide, but most of her rivals aren’t likely to make her work too hard if she wants to press forward. Expect her to be on the speed and hard to beat.
Race 6 (5.27pm) – B D Hall
Being on speed and out of trouble will be the plan for this big striding trotter. He’s another that may not look perfectly suited to Ascot Park at first glance, but he cornered like a greyhound when winning his only start at the track. The three-year-old gives away experience, but he doesn’t look to give away a talent advantage to those off handicaps. If he is able to step away cleanly he might set a task that will prove too tough for those behind him.
He looks the pick of those off the front and a great Invercargill Cup Day chance.