By Michael Guerin
The reason Merlin shouldn’t win tonight’s TAB Holmes D G at Alexandra Park isn’t as powerful as the reasons he should win it.
The north’s best pacer faces the curse of the back makers in the Group 3 tonight, a win-and-you-are-in race for the IRT New Zealand Cup on November 11.
Horses starting off back marks in major races in recent years have been regularly getting beaten and costing punters plenty, Merlin doing exactly that in the Spring Cup last start against many of those he races tonight.
Even after sitting in the one-one for the last lap he could manage only third as stablemate Sooner The Bettor and trailer The Surfer used their superior trips to stay in front of him.
Betting on back markers because they are the best horse in the race has become the new punter’s poison but every now and then they can pull it off, like Oscar Bonavena in the Banks Peninsula Trotting Cup or Merlin in this race last year.
The set up last season was the same as tonight: Merlin was beaten fresh up in the Spring Cup but improved fitness and the extra 500m of the Holmes D G helped him turn that around.
Co-trainer Scott Phelan says Merlin is fitter for that fresh up run this season too and is the best chance of the five reps he and training partner Barry Purdon have in tonight’s race.
Merlin’s excellent manners coupled with a couple of his rivals still being inexperienced from a stand increases the possibility the favourite can be three back on the outer at worst starting the last lap and from there he would be the horse to beat.
Particularly if Sooner The Bettor is not getting his own way in front, which is entirely possible after he drew barrier 1.
Barrier 1 sounds great for a front runner and may well prove to be so but Sooner The Bettor bobbled away from the stand last start and if he does that from the 2700m start point he will be crossed by at least a couple of rivals.
Even freewheeling in front Sooner The Bettor tends to find anything north of 2400m out of his comfort zone and he could be susceptible to Merlin’s magic later.
So, Merlin is the best horse but has the handicap to overcome.
Sooner The Bettor isn’t really suited by his barrier or the distance.
But if you aren’t backing those two, who do you want to back?
Their stablemates Better Knuckle Up and Jeremiah are good horses but still learning and neither has won an open class race so they are hardly ideally off in the handicaps.
Their stablemate Cold Chisel is expected to need the run after only having one start back after a career-threatening injury.
Arna Donnelly has three in the race and The Surfer and Jolimont went excellent in second and fourth respectively in the Spring Cup and should improve, so they deserve consideration.
“If I had to pick one I’d go for Jolimont as he has gone two good races this time in,” says Donnelly.
But Jolimont is still on the unruly so technically will be giving a start to those drawn inside him and his $5.50 opening quote is short enough.
But at least he has actually won an open class race, the Lincoln Farm Founders Cup in March, which is more than you can say for most in tonight’s race.
So punters have a choice tonight.
Do you want to back a horse giving away a start that most horses can’t give away any more?
Or a horse who doesn’t really like its draw and the distance?
Or maybe Jolimont, a horse on the unruly who has run unplaced in its last six starts?
The answer should be Merlin.
