By Michael Guerin
When one of our greatest ever horse trainers says has no doubts Merlin can handle the 3200m of tonight’s $250,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup you have to listen.
But as confident as Barry Purdon is in the most favoured of his three reps in tonight’s Group 1 at Alexandra Park, he also admits the enormity of the challenge they face in beating favourite Republican Party.
Barry Purdon has trained eight Auckland Cup winners, his first an incredible 47 years ago with Sole Command.
He and training partner Scott Phelan not only have Merlin but Sooner The Bettor and Better Knuckle Up in tonight’s eight-horse Cup, with Merlin looking clearly the best of their chances after a strong spring was backed up by a last-start win.
But as good as their $1.7million earner is, the pot on Merlin is that he can’t stay 3200m with the same potency he shows in sprint races.
That might be a little misguided considering Merlin has had three starts over 3200m for a second, third and fourth all at Group 1 level.
He was an average fourth by his standards in the New Zealand Cup last year, a close second with superior performance to winner Republican Party in the Auckland Cup last New Year’s Eve and then was third, and first Kiwi home, in the New Zealand Cup last month, coming from behind Republican Party, who finished sixth after leading.
When you take that record into account and the fact Merlin has beaten Republican Party home in seven of their 12 clashes you might wonder why Republican Party is $1.40 tonight and Merlin is $4.80.
There are two main reasons.
Republican Party has been the dominant pacer in New Zealand for most of 2025, his defeats usually coming at the hands of Aussies superstars Leap To Fame or Kingman.
And the other big tick Republican Party has is three Group 1 wins over 3200m to Merlin’s none.
Purdon agrees Republican Party is the horse to beat tonight but doesn’t that has anything to do with the distance.
“Republican Party has been in the zone for much of the year so he will be hard to get past,” admits Purdon.
“But I don’t believe Merlin struggles with 3200m. He has won Derbys over 2600m and 2700m both mobile starts and he was very good in this race last year and beat Republican Party home in the New Zealand Cup.”
One of the reasons the two pacers are viewed differently at the moment is that Merlin was so good as a younger horse and won the $1million slot race at four but hasn’t been as dominant in the last 18 months.
Whereas Republican Party used to be the brave battler, often behind a race rival tonight in Akuta during his all-powerful younger days, but the Republican Party of the last 15 moths is stronger, faster and almost more arrogant.
The reality is whichever of the pair steps quicker from their front line draws tonight can probably lead and intimidate any potential challengers, a scenario Purdon admits he likes the sound of.
While that might suit Merlin, put Republican Party in front with no pressure and on his top 10 performances in the last 15 months he should win.
Which is where it gets tricky for punters.
For all the undoubted class of their rivals, one of the pair should win but it is hard to take $1.40 for Republican Party.
That price should drift to some where between $1.50 and $1.70, which might be more palatable for punters but too late for multi bettors.
That may motivate some to take the $4.80 for Merlin, or even his $1.85 quote to finish Top2 while others may search for place value, perhaps the best being Better Knuckle Up after his huge NZ Cup fourth and with Tony Herlihy driving.
The question mark horse is Akuta, who won this Cup when it was held in May two years ago but needs to find two lengths or more on his recent form to challenge the two favourites today.
To see tonight’s Trillion Trust Auckland Cup field click here
